Fostering an innovation-based economy

In the last articles of Innovation Models, we addressed micro issues concerning innovations in a specific industry and theory on innovation as a whole. Brooking’s Study on “Building an Innovation-Based Economy” by Darrell West, Allan Friedman, and Walter Valdivia approaches the issue of innovation more broadly, with various suggestions and recommendations not only in the private but also in the public level in order to create an effective innovation-based economy. The most general ideas of the study are policy recommendations for government: In their recommendations, they argue that the primary goals of policymakers should be: ensuring conditions that promote innovation and entrepreneurship in the private sector, leveraging the digital economy in a way that boosts government services and makes agencies more efficient and effective, enhance digital infrastructure and provide data that allows the proper measurement of economic figures and laying the foundation for a strong, educated, and innovative workforce.  More specifically the study reveals that policymakers should foster the improvement of metrics that value worker productivity; invest on the mating of entrepreneurial skills and academic life and the expansion and create conditions for start-ups to evolve, to encourage entrepreneurship early on, which encourages government to get more involved in entrepreneurial activity by providing credit and/or tax breaks to new businesses; legislate the improvement of infrastructures that enable the evolution and widespread of communications which facilitates business everywhere; improve the harmonization of cross-border laws that facilitate communication and freedom of expression; improve technological transfer and commercialization of knowledge from universities to public and private companies so that both public and private investments translate into jobs and economic activity as well as better health, security, and well-being.

This study focuses on turning the US economy into a more innovation-based economy by appealing to policymakers to create legislation and programs that facilitate the creation of new businesses. Even though it is primarily directed to the US economy and it’s issues with the lack of innovation in some sectors, the study presents more general examples and guidelines of important policy that can be applied outside the US. One of the most impressive statements in addressing this issue is the concern for the improvement of infrastructures that facilitate communications, since it is normally not a big issue in most developed economies but it is extremely important in the US. Another issue in fostering an innovation-based economy that can be applied outside the US is building an educated and innovative workforce, and reducing bottlenecks in the dissemination and commercialization of knowledge, which is crucial for a starting point in building a strong and ever so innovative business environment in the long-run.

Brooking’s study focuses on the US economy, however some of the policies and structural reforms that the authors suggest were already implemented in some countries and most of them are now an example of groundbreaking sustainable innovations. Such is the example of Japan and Finland. The source for this claim is the Global Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum; a complete and thorough index that measures the competitiveness of OECD countries, comprised of 12 pillars that formulate macro-economic and business data into a competitiveness ranking. We will be using the last pillar, and one of the most important ones to formulate the point we are making above. Below are the matrices of these 3 countries, the US, Finland and Japan. Upon analyzing the matrices, the level of innovation in both Finland and Japan top the list, however, in other pillars that compose the competitiveness index there is some evidence of their difference to the US. Japan is on average with innovation-driven economies while Finland is above average on most pillars except market size and infrastructure. Both these economies have higher levels of business sophistication and institutions which are pillars fundamental for the fostering of innovations in any country.

U.S.A. FINLAND - CompInd JAPAN - CompInd

Free valuation e-book: Modelling Innovation – Chapter on Leveraged Buyout Operations

We are now releasing the next Chapter of our free valuation e-book, which can be downloaded here.  Ending the valuation models theme and Part I of the e-book , Chapter 9 focuses on describing LBO’s and its methodology, as well as pros and cons, answering the following questions:

  • What kind of Companies qualify for an LBO?
  • What are the steps for the execution of an LBO?
  • How is an LBO Analysis Structured?

We look forward to hearing from you, so do let us know your comments.

Free valuation e-book: Modelling Innovation – Chapter on the Free Cash Flow to the Equity Model

We are now releasing the next Chapter of our free valuation e-book, which can be downloaded here.  Continuing with the company valuation models theme, Chapter 8 focuses on describing how to perform a valuation of a company using the FCFE model, answering the following questions:

·         Why use the FCFE model?

·         Estimating Growth of FCFE.

·         Practical example on using the FCFE model.

We look forward to hearing from you, so do let us know your comments.

Imprisoned by Innovation – New York Times

See on Scoop.itInnovation and business models

Imprisoned by Innovation New York Times That smartphones allow us to imprison twice the number of people at half the cost is the kind of cutting-edge innovation that only management consultants and tech entrepreneurs would be excited about.

Hugo Mendes Domingos‘s insight:

While the article includes clever insights, some conclusions appear flawed. Interesting article with actionable ideas.

See on www.nytimes.com

Free valuation e-book: Modelling Innovation – Chapter on the Analysis of Past Transactions

We are now releasing the next Chapter of our free valuation e-book, which can be downloaded here.  Continuing with the company valuation theme, Chapter 7 focuses on describing how to perform an Analysis of Past Transactions, answering the following questions:

  • How is an APT structured?
  • What is an Analysis of Past Transactions?
  • Practical example on analysis a company’s past transactions and determining its value.

We look forward to hearing from you, so do let us know your comments.

R&D investment does not guarantee marketable innovations

A common question in today’s market and business environment is whether R&D investment translates into a profitable and marketable solution or product. This question is addressed in a recent Booz & Company survey, which maps the efficiency of R&D investment against the ability of each company to market goods and services.

One of the facts that stand out in the survey is that Apple, one of the main examples of transforming innovative ideas into marketable products, spends roughly 2.2% of sales on R&D, well below the industry average of 6.5%. This is another example of the lack of correlation between investment in R&D and the development of marketable products.

The survey also reveals that companies that engage customers in order to understand their needs and wants and then try to be first in developing new products that respond to those needs, tend to be more effective in their early-stage innovation efforts.

One of the  survey’s main conclusions is the notion that the financial crisis did not slow down R&D investment, as companies are keener to generate profit from new products and ideas. However, successful innovation does not appear to necessarily involve new techniques (e.g. social networking and co-creation, cutting edge physics) just the knowledge of what works and what does not really work in the marketplace.

The chart below shows the effectiveness of innovation (measured as a trade-off between idea creation and conversion):

post_1
 The effectiveness of innovation can also be measured by the amount of innovation pursuers and GDP % of investment in R&D. The chart below shows the tendencies of this indicator for OECD countries.

post_2

Finland is the country with the highest number of scientists and engineers and higher percentage of R&D investment. Israel is an interesting case, as the country invests heavily in R&D yet does not need a high number of scientists in order to do so – an example of efficiency. At the other end of the spectrum is Greece, which produces a high number of scientists yet does not invest in R&D.

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Innovation, nonconsumption and the Portuguese education system [barrier]

The recently published IMF report on Portuguese public sector reform (“Portugal: Rethinking the State—Selected Expenditure Reform Options”) lists several reform options and advice based on country data and comparisons to international standards. The comparison is drawn mainly with EU15 countries, which is a sub-group of countries in the EU comparable to Portugal.

While innovation is not directly mentioned in the report, some of the measures suggested are really about process innovation. In the private sector, process innovation is constantly used to gain a competitive advantage in the marketplace and to create wealth. In the public sector, process innovation should be used as a tool for creating efficiencies in government organisations, which lead to better services for the public.

In his article “Why Innovation Matters In Politics And The Public Sector”, Faisal Hoque approaches innovation in the public sector with business and financial concerns that are basic and widespread in the private sector. Return on investment, risk management, technological innovations and efficiency are essential for the success of any company and should also be a concern of Government officials and managers when investing public funds in critical sectors such as health and education.

In the education sector, the IMF identifies a serious inefficiency in the management of schools. The IMF’s analysis reveals that there is over staffing and that career progress for teachers is based solely on seniority. Schools have very limited management leeway and in fact cannot choose whom to hire. Can you imagine a company being managed without the ability to choose its own staff? This is what happens in this case: every year, a number of teacher positions become vacant nationwide. Teachers apply and the choice is made based on seniority.

Taking a step back, a useful concept to describe the failures of the Portuguese education system is nonconsumption, which describes an area which appears unattractive to the companies or institutions that offer a service and where at the same time, some people would like to do something but are unable to get access to the available offering. At first sight, there are no obvious areas of nonconsumption in education: everyone is required to attend school up to a certain age. However, if you look deeper, you will probably find that a large proportion of Portuguese students simply do not manage to reach higher education, although they would like to, because they failed to grasp the more basic concepts between ages 12-18. This is the crucial problem that needs to be addressed. The first step towards solving this problem is to place motivated and capable teachers in front of those students that aspire to attend university but do not have the means or the background to do so. This is simply not achievable if the schools cannot differentiate between teachers based on their competences.

These problems have plagued the education system and seem to have flown under the radar screen of previous (and numerous) reforms of the education system in the past. The IMF suggests a better appointment system for teachers (not only based on seniority but on competence) and a framework whereby money would “follow the student”, which would allow better teacher hiring practices and a more efficient provision of education services.

While some other measures proposed by the IMF in the report are painful, involving loss of jobs or the reduction of income for civil servants, this type of reform is really about the implementation of important and sometimes long overdue structural reforms.

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Free valuation e-book: Modelling Innovation – Chapter on Comparable Companies Analysis

We are now releasing the preview of the next Chapter of our free valuation e-book, which can be downloaded here.  Continuing with the company valuation theme, Chapter 6 focuses on describing the methodology on how to perform a comparable companies analysis, answering the following questions:

  • What is the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
  • How is a comparable companies analysis structured?
  • How to perform a practical comparable companies analysis.

We look forward to hearing from you, so do let us know your comments.

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Top 5 – Review of the Year 2012

Just before 2013 begins, we recall the most popular posts of 2012, which shed light on creativity and innovation, the economy and the crisis. These 5 posts attracted the most views from February to December 2012 (as we started blogging on this platform in February). If you missed these articles the first time around, now is your time to see why our readers found these pieces so compelling.

The fifth most viewed post was Types of Innovation and Economic Growth posted in November 2012. This post discussed the different ways in which innovation can lead to economic growth, based on an article published by Clay Christensen in the NYT.

Number 4 was Bad loans, ECB intervention and competitive advantages which addressed the problems of the portuguese financial situation regarding bad loans. We argue that the bad loans problem will be solved once the innovation challenge is properly addressed.

Portugal’s austerity measures and the impact on business innovation , a post about the lack of impact of the announced austerity measures on business innovation, was number 3 in terms of readership. This post was published on 20 September, after the Portuguese prime minister’s announcement (on 7 September) of the Government’s intention to change the rates of social security contributions. This announcement sparked a political crisis, which culminated in large-scale demonstrations.

The second place goes to Stop obsessing about the next black swan and innovate which addresses the themes of business innovation and financial modeling.

The top post of 2012 is Innovation and Portuguese film production from January, which describes the problems and barriers met in film production in Portugal, which stifle innovation in this industry.

Due to the nature of blogging, these statistics are not 100% relevant, since posts published in early 2012 attract more viewers as time passes. The most viewed post has been online for nearly 12 months, but it is likely for instance that “Types of innovation and economic growth” (published in November) will attract more readers when compared on a like-for-like basis.

This was a year of change, during which we commented on some of the major political and business developments and tried to put forward actual examples of good practices. It was a pleasure to interact with our readers and we hope we can continue to count on you in 2013. Have a great year!

 

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Estimating the cost of capital

In the subject of project valuation, most companies adopt a method that suits their financial and overall economic environment. When valuing a project (or an acquisition), companies need to choose the right parameters for their financial models, consistent with the risks involved and do not behave in the same way. Between choosing the risk-free rate and its periodicity, the cost of debt and equity and the data sources, companies use different valuation methods.

The 2011 survey by the Association for Finance Professionals on the cost of capital (“Current Trends in Estimating and Applying the Cost of Capital”) provides evidence on the project valuation process of 309 companies. The average company evaluates projects using the Discounted Cash Flow model, develops an explicit cash flow forecast for the first five years of the project or investment, and applies an estimated terminal value to all cash flows thereafter.

One of the most surprising facts in this survey is that 84 of the 309 companies surveyed forecast using a one-year horizon, which is inappropriate, as a short projection period will not produce a realistic financial analysis.

Another surprising fact is that the choice of the risk-free rate that is all but consensual in project valuation. Assuming that all the companies in the survey are based in the US, the risk-free rate used should be the returns on US long-term Government bonds, adjusted by the respective country risk premiums if the company in question has operations outside the country. However, this is not the case.

The choices of the typical company

The survey concludes that, on average, a typical company uses discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to evaluate the uses of its capital when considering competing projects and long-term investments. When estimating the cash flows to be discounted, the organisations develop an explicit cash flow forecast for the first five years of the project or investment, and applies an estimated terminal value to all cash flows thereafter, using the perpetuity growth model to estimate that terminal value.

Recognising the unpredictability of forecasted cash flows, the typical company uses multiple cash flow scenarios, including best case, expected case, and worst case forecasts. To find the rate at which to discount cash flows, the typical organisation calculates its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and reviews that calculation only when needed for a valuation.

Furthermore, the companies surveyed do not usually adjust the WACC to reflect factors unique to the project or investment being considered. Those companies recognise that the estimate of WACC is not perfect, but believe it to be accurate within a range of plus or minus 75 basis points. When valuing a potential acquisition, these companies use the estimated cost of capital from a group of companies comparable to the potential acquisition target.

To determine the weights to apply to the cost of debt and the cost of equity in determining the WACC, the typical organisation uses the current book debt-to-equity ratio. The nominal cost of debt is based on the current interest rate on the company’s outstanding debt, with the after-tax cost of debt being calculated using the company’s effective tax rate.

The typical company uses the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to calculate their cost of equity. To perform that calculation, it uses the current rate on the 10-year Treasury note as risk-free rate. Regardless of where that rate is, the typical company does not impose any floor or cap on the risk-free rate.

The following are some charts that summarise the most relevant valuation assumptions used to produce valuation estimates, according to the survey:

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[Updated December 2012 by Hugo Mendes Domingos]

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